Excellent Online Football Gambling Agent Expertise 531728

How to identify value within your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they provide a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.

A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and here. bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't appear to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any individual bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that might give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers will vary to the extent that you could find a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the aforementioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there isn't any difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so could possibly be the most effective value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you evaluate the chances of each outcome just isn't because of this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we are working with bookmakers' margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it truly is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is the best one to show how exactly to use percentages.

It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. For this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.